10 X-Factors: Players who will significantly shape FSU’s season...if they reach their potential (2024)

These players who drastically alter the complexion of FSU's play IF they reach their potential

Brendan Sonnone

Florida State enters the 2024 campaign with high expectations as national pundits are viewing the Seminoles as an ACC title contender for a second year in a row despite losing more than half the starting lineup from last season's 13-win squad.

The dichotomy of losing so much while still being viewed as a viable CFPi team speaks to the talent that's been accumulated under coach Mike Norvell. But the catch for this year's roster is that the talent is unproven either on this roster or in the specific role that a player is expected to overtake.

With that in mind, we wanted to highlight some of the high-variance players on this team who are unknowns to some extent or another. The X-Factor players.

These are talented players who haven't stepped into a sizable role at FSU before this season…but with a reasonable jump forward or settling into said role (i.e going from average to above average, promising back up to starter, good talent to great talent) could change the complexion of their position group. On the other hand, staying stagnant or regressing could mean that FSU struggles to reach its potential as a CFPi type of squad.

Which high-variance players will most define FSU's success on the field in 2024?

QB DJ Uiagalelei

DJ Uiagalelei comes in from Oregon State, and previously Clemson. He's a seasoned veteran – going 30-10 as a starter – who has made gradual improvements year-over-year after a disappointing first season as a starter back in 2021.

Uiagalelei didn't live up to his five-star billing, but the past two seasons have been quite solid in different schemes (61.1 completion rate for 5,159 yards and 43 TD to 14 INT in that span) and point to him figuring out a way to bring a stable hand to FSU as the Seminoles transition out of the Jordan Travis Era.

A reason why I view Uiagalelei as an X-Factor type of player is because he's more than a high-floor, game manager at QB. I think that's the most likely outcome for 2024 given his history, but Uiagalelei has the skill set to elevate his game to another level as well. Big arm, mobile at his size, and some mechanics that can be cleaned up leading to more accuracy. If the latter happens, then the other tools can be unlocked to their fullest potential…and we then won't be talking about DJU as only a game manager nor as FSU as only a fringe postseason contener.

WR Hykeem Williams

Hykeem Williams is another former five-star recruit who brings immense talent to the table…which we saw last season in spurts before a nagging ankle injury sidelined him for most of the remaining games.

But the good was good, and lends itself to optimism that the raw but gifted prospect can bring a level of explosiveness and physicality to the 9-WR spot as FSU searches for an adequate replacement to Johnny Wilson.

Kentron Poitier is the other expected player in contention for this starting role entering preseason camp. And while both have upside, Williams has more potential given how early he is in his respective career.

Yet Williams is still a work in progress, clay needing to be molded. You see what the finished product could look like, and that's exciting. But Williams didn't run away with a starting spot this spring – he wasn't consistent in tracking the ball, but then had some highlight plays sprinkled in there – and was challenged in the offseason to take another step forward.

Getting Williams to outright win the starting spot would be huge, because that would mean an NFL-caliber receiver has earned the staff's trust to the point of being a featured part of the offense.

WR Malik Benson

Perhaps you've heard, FSU is Betting on Benson.

The Seminoles have unknowns aplenty at wide receiver (see Williams above), but the player with the highest volume of variance to his game in the 2024 season is probably Malik Benson.

The Alabama transfer had just 13 catches for 162 yards as a starter in his lone P5 season (previously a JUCO standout), but FSU sees a speedy and dynamic athlete who was consistently open and just didn't get the ball nearly enough.

And so, with that in mind, FSU is tabbing Benson as its WR1 this season.

That puts a fairly high burden on a player who hasn't really worn that role before, but FSU thinks he's up to the challenge. Benson impressed the staff in the winter program as well as spring camp with his maturity, and he showed to be a really consistent wide receiver with more than just deep speed to his game.

FSU needs Benson to be good, no doubt about it. And the internal belief, simply put, is that Benson will indeed be good.

RB Jaylin Lucas

Just in the way he plays, Jaylin Lucas is an X-Factor.

The Indiana transfer is a burner, bringing 10.6 speed to the football field in addition to high-end acceleration and body control. These traits made him one of the most dynamic kickoff returners in the country over the past two seasons (3 TDs) and they're reasons why FSU is going to make it a point of emphasis to get the diminutive athlete the ball this year.

Lucas' week-to-week role could vary depending on what FSU wants to accomplish and how opponents play Lucas when he's moved around the field. But there should be built-in opportunities to get him the ball as a runner and receiver.

Now here's the rub. Lucas also brings a high drop rate with him from Indiana (13.0 Drop Rate was 39th out of 40 qualified RBs last season). He'll need to be used as a receiver in order to maximize his speed – Lucas will get touches as a runner, but he probably can't be a 10-carry type of guy most weeks given his size – and you won't be able to afford costly drops in an offense that'll be built around high reward but low accuracy deep shots.

If Lucas is a consistent receiving threat, then he unlocks a ton in the passing game because defenses will be forced to respect his speed with over-the-top help.

DT Darrell Jackson

If there was ever a player who perfectly fit both the upside and unknown elements of what it means to be an X-Factor…it's Darrell Jackson.

Jackson wasn't able to play last regular season (thanks NCAA!), but it seemed like he was good for an utterly dominant or two every practice. At 6-foot-6, 330 pounds, Jackson has a unique build and movement skills within that elite frame.

Is he able to channel his freaky size/power/explosion combo on a consistent basis? If so, then you're looking at a high-caliber NFL talent in a starting role for you. If not, and Jackson's play is up and down (there are going to be good moments, we're not worried about that), then FSU might struggle to control the point-of-attack as well as it needs to in order to field a dominant defense.

DT Daniel Lyons

Probably your top reserve inside, Daniel Lyons is another DT that FSU needs to step up this season.

Lyons has played well when given opportunities over the last two seasons, but he's about to take a significant jump forward in snaps. Because of the unknowns ahead of him (Jackson) and behind him (Grady Kelly is a G5 transfer and KJ Sampson is a second-year defender) Lyons is someone who could significantly alter the complexion of your defense for about 20-25 snaps per game.

If he's steady, then you can rest easy when Josh Farmer and Jackson come off the field. If there are any issues with consistency, then FSU might struggle to stop the run for stretches throughout a game given that there aren't a ton of options to replace Lyons' snaps.

DE Marvin Jones Jr.

Marvin Jones Jr. was excellent in the back half of spring practice.

The former five-star recruit started to put together this array of tools – initial burst, bend, and speed – to show glimpses of being a really dangerous speed rusher.

FSU exits spring with confidence that Jones Jr. is your starter opposite of Patrick Payton.

But is he going to be able to throw his fastball at a consistent rate as a high-snap player? It's a relatively new role for Jones Jr., who started some towards the end of the season at Georgia last year and was up and down in that capacity.

In terms of variance, few on the roster have a higher ceiling. A good, consistent version Jones Jr. absolutely alters what this defense can be in 2024 because you'd have him opposite of an NFL talent in Patrick Payton…which would make FSU one of the few teams nationally with two Sunday type of pass rushers off the edge.

LB Blake Nichelson

We'll see just how big a role Blake Nichelson earns in Year 2, but major reps are there for the taking and few on the roster have as much raw talent as the sophom*ore.

Nichelson is built to be a modern, space-eating linebacker. But he also lacks general experience at the position, creating a high probability of growing pains if he takes on a featured role this season.

FSU believes Nichelson to be the future of the position, a player who could reach a Kalen DeLoach-level of impact much earlier in his respective career. Whether or not that sort of impact is made in 2024 is TBD, but it would be a huge development to get Nichelson near that level to place him next to DJ Lundy so their contrasting styles can complement one another.

S Conrad Hussey

If you went down a check list of the things that need to happen in order for FSU's defense to reach its top level of play, it seems pretty obvious that Conrad Hussey earning a spot in the starting rotation because he performed at a consistent level in practice would be atop that list.

The good version of Hussey is pretty spectacular. We saw him make impact plays at an absurdly high level as a true freshman last season, but that came with a high volume of costly missed assignments as well.

It felt like that was a similar case in the spring and I can't confidently write that Hussey distinguished himself as the rightful starter next to Shyheim Brown. Davonte Brown and Omarion Cooper are going to be in the mix to start along with Hussey, I expect a legitimate competition here in camp (and also expect all three to play a decent deal) and I don't have a great sense of which player will win out.

But I do know that FSU will be at its best if it consistently gets the good version of Hussey to show up. He has rare ball skills and range, two traits that can change games in a hurry.

10 X-Factors: Players who will significantly shape FSU’s season...if they reach their potential (2024)
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